Geekomon

My April predictions, 1.3 million PSPs from October to December 30th
VGChartz says...

Console	PSP
America	975,287

Pretty damn close. There's also a Christmas to go for the remaining 400k.
400k is also what i predicted would be the PSP monthly sales after the price change.

Stock predictions. Buy at $49, release at $55.
Yahoo Stock ticker says...

Last Trade:	53.23
Trade Time:	Dec 7
Change:	1.54 (2.81%)

And guess what the market high for these 4 prime months were.
$55 (courtesy of finance.google.com). So if you bought in April at $49, you would have had a 12% rate on your investment. Most mutual funds give 8% return rates. 1000 dollars would make you 120$ for 9 months. Around 14 dollars a month. $5,000 investment would make that $70 a month.

The bad thing about this investment is that it's not really worth the risk for most professional investors. Sony could have pretty much pulled an Enron within 9 months. which is why i thought getting in at september or october would be better. A 4 month wait is safer.

The profit is even better too.
$45 entry. 4 months. That's a 22% ROI. $1,000 nets $250. $62 a month, baby.

Here's the point in all this math. Get in low; Get out fast.

Here's my prediction for the future. Get out of luxury stocks.
No more gaming stocks for the next year minumum. No apparel stocks.
The dollar is so volatile that there's not enough foreign interest to boost any kind of stock. So don't look for foreign interest. Look for local interest.

Any stock company with a government contract is GOLDEN. Services! Services never devalue.
Find out what your local government outsources to the private sector, and start sinking your savings. Personally, i like traffic cameras. Educational services are good, too. Traffic and Education eat the majority of government funding.

GDS 5.5 has a really bad error where only enabling web history allows you to access 127.0.0.1. Allowing web history tracking allows GDS to search secure http lines--which i guess includes 127.0.0.1.

Instead of bringing up my latest Super Duper Man videos when i type Duper, it brings up my imdb.com results. Which is a hassle.

Bad Google. The fix is to disable the googlemozilla dll in the components folder of Google Desktop. Hit the link for further instruction. It works but exactly how will GDS get popular when you have to do all this bullshit?

Google should just buy Firefox already. Or make their own browser. Most people could care less about the ability to search their hard drives using a parsing app but this is a super important bug.

Imagine if the same shit happened to Google Search! Or to Google Reader? Since most Google apps are heading for a dual online and desktop implementation, more stuff like this shit is going to happen. And woe be it he who relyeth on Google too much.

Fix this shit, dammit. It irks me to have a dll renamed for no reason.

Over on Major Nelson's blog is a little post entitled...forgot. Something about what's wrong with Microsoft's approach to software and services as opposed to say, Google.

Here's my top 10 list of wrongheaded snafucks.

1. Asking the Public.
For god's sake. "Involve the community." That's a PR move. As if high-ups are going to take any honesty to heart. As if the public has enough information to give insightful answers. You need to be in the company to know where the dirty shit is rolling from. Preferably someone who's worked under every facet of the company. Human Resources? The pretty girl at the front desk?

2. Insecurity.
Stop comparing yourself to Google! Face it. You will never be Google. Just beat Yahoo. Not everyone likes the blank screen Google provides. Some ppl enjoy being spoon fed their info. That's why Yahoo's still in business. The less stuff you make people learn, the better. Bundle shit with your computers. Make language localizations a top priority. Get all Yahoo's business. Solve your insecurity by actually beating someone new. Beating Netscape was a long time ago.

3. A Better Business Model.
Software development supported by ad revenue. That's how Google is kicking everyone's ass. You can't beat FREE! Not only is it free, it's good enough. Offer up Office for free, and make available all the really business oriented features (like replication) as a pay for service. Make integration a paid package too. But offer everything else for free. Lose a chunk of your market? It's already gone anyways. Hell, make Vista free. This probably isn't possible due to business inertia. I suggest you prototype new products and services with this model. Xbox Live, maybe?

4. Simplicity.
7 versions of every software? 4 versions of every service? It's one thing to maximize your profit by your audience but no one's going to read 3 pages of features list. Offer 2 version. Pro and Free. Simplicity isn't just good for the consumers, it's good for the bottom line. How much advertising money does it take for Microsoft to gain a new customer? How are you going to compete against the new age of cellphones and blackberries?

5. Corporate Culture.
Make better decisions. Find good people to make better decisions. And then let them. Prototype, and test a leader. Then give him a project. Give him a timeline. Rinse, Repeat. Do not let a PERSON define success. Let multiple people and if possible, use numbers as a metric. Is the Zune the second most popular player in America? Does it sell at a good price? Is it a fashion statement? If no, J. Allard is not your golden boy. Look elsewhere.

6. Vista
The problem with Vista is that Microsoft doesn't have a retail presence. Fuck making computers. Just own some brick and mortar shop. You will lead by example. Lots of distributors have their own retail outlets. It's a way to control ppl like Micheal Dell who will bow to public pressure. You want to popularize Vista? Well, start selling computers at cost. You exert just enough pressure to light a fire up Dell's ass. You can pull back at any time.

7. Xbox
Do not nickel and dime. Do not charge for things that have been free since time immemorial. Do not charge for online. Do not buy 2nd tier gaming companies. Do not buy Rare. Do not buy Lionhead. Do not buy Peter Molyneux. Buy cheap stuff. In order to do that, you need a good buyer. Someone that knows the business. I suggest someone from Scandinavia. At least two people from the indie scene (people can smell bad programmers from a mile away---'ahh, that guy has time to bathe. fire him.')

8. Start killing bad projects. Microsoft Surface is stupid. Table PC. Dumb.
Start new projects. Not new new but new and profitable. ISP business. Wifi infrastructure. Retail. Don't aim for hotly contested business. Go into several small pools and eat them. Silverlight is a good idea. Adobe is only one fish. Xbox was a good idea. Bad idea now that Nintendo has Iwata. Don't want to step on your developer's toes? Design your software to be compatible with your competitor. It's the same philosophy as having a retail presence. Drive a fire up your developer's ass, saying 'don't make Photoshop so expensive, bitch!' It makes Silverlight an even better idea since it's a platform--all platforms are belong to Microsoft, donchaknow? And if they don't know, make them know. Platforms are expensive to support. Finish killing Sun's Java Machines and then work on Silverlight. Do more little projects. Any software market that has one big fish needs to be controlled. Fuck up Adobe Photoshop. Fuck up Autocad. Fuck up Itunes.

9. Quality Control.
This is a huge endeavor. Do this first before everything else. TQA. Forget all about the six sigma crap and make your own metrics.

10. Even Big companies have weaknesses.
That means you have strengths as well. One, bundle software into your operating system. Get sued? Wouldn't have this problem if Vista was free. But regardless, you can still bundle. Just bundle it with a competitor as well. IE has Microsoft labeled on the ass--that kind of official status beats everything. Two, businesses are still under Microsoft's fiefdom. Use them. Talk with them. Solidify the hold even further.

As for weaknesses: Microsoft has a lot of money. But it aint infinite. Don't waste it on shit ventures. Also, for all it's success, it is still a software company. One product is heavily dependent on a PC market that's slowing down and commodotizing. The other product is being attacked by free products like OpenOffice and Google Writely. Revenue will shrink. Revenue IS shrinking.

But the thing with good solutions is that they are self correcting/fulfilling. This 10th thing is a deadline for the company to start making better products and to focus resources. Fix the first 4 on the list, the others will buckle like dominoes.

"I Want Charles Giant Lego Man in Charge of My Kids"

Oh come on. It's a fricking giant lego man. If this was a Robot, no one would dare fuck with your kids. When i say fuck, i mean literally.

It's a big world. Filled with pedophiles. What? It's true.

Chiaki Ishikawa
Little Bird
Bokurano OP ED

Gripping the branch which becomes the guide
Dropping to the foot
Way that child which to the opposite bank is not perplexed,

Those which appear in your pupil
Without thinking that that is everything,
Still while blue picking up the truth which it passes, the profile which you laugh
The pain knowing, as for those which the small feather carries shining
When it just was born it is the all-inclusive wall
The rear form fly away was held

In shower in shade of trees
Lowering breath, the [ru]
Being able to tell calling voice
Until the rain stops, we would like to speak a little

Those which your pupil desires
With this feather which makes the small nest
You will live in order to connect the children who come being born
The loneliness which waives that back
Holding closing, as for this place which slept
Probably it continues to be the vacant seat eternally
You are thought in pride, directly

Those which appear in your pupil
Without thinking that that is everything,
Still while blue picking up the truth which it passes, the profile which you laugh
The pain knowing, as for those which the small feather carries shining
When it just was born it is the all-inclusive wall
The rear form fly away was held

The whole iPhone thing is a miracle. Just look at the Wii and the PS3. Two hotly wanted items. Both ebayed to high heavens during the first 3 months. Ruthless speculators with the time to hunt it, holding the devices hostage. Avid Gamers that want the system, forced to pay a premium for its release.

So, how did Apple avoid this?

1. They released it only in America. Easier to plan and control the logistics when all the data is in the same country. Shipping streamlined. Distribution quick. Supply can be quantified

2. They only allowed two retailers. No unscrupulous Toys R US workers taking the devices off the market for Ebay purposes. 90% of the iPhones were retailed through Apple stores = 0% corruption. Demand can be quantified.

3. They pre-planned. Apple talked with Ebay beforehand about how they should quickly take down any iPhone reselling ads. Early speculation halted.

4. They allowed people to buy more than 2. Speculation comes in waves. There are the early spectators who take a lot of risk in the first week/day. Then comes the careful spectators--the bigger wave that usually contains the more successful spectators of the first wave (often using the proceeds from their earlier speculation). By allowing the first spectators to buy two, and then making the speculation go bust, that gives the speculator a negative -1000 in their wallet. An ouch that makes them think twice about trying to speculate again. Snowball anti-speculation effect. Late Speculation halted.

I'm not sure any other company except Apple could have implemented such a top down effort to stamp ebayism of their product. But dammit, it is beauty to behold.

Here's the deal. The PSP Price has now been slashed. It went from 250, to 199, to 170. Now, why?

Let's deal in numbers. Let's limit it to 2005-2006 and to the battle between the DS Lite and PSP. Forget the fact that the GBA is still kicking ass with its walking stick.

Numbers
Sony America managed to fight the 9 million DS Lites being sold with a whopping 7 million PSPs. Getting trounced by 2 million is okay. Remember, the PSP is 1.6:1 more expensive than the DS Lite. 7 million PSP units generates enough revenue as 12 million DS Lite units.

In Japan, the DS Lite is winning with by a 7:1 ratio but that's okay too. DS Lites sold 8 million copies.

The point is, in America, the PSP is just as popular as the DS Lite. There's no reason why the PSP needs a 30 dollar price decrease. Not in America or Europe anyways. Worldwide, the PSP as a hardware platform sells just as well as the DS Lite. And selling more hardware isn't going to solve the software attach ratio problem.

Main Point
A redesign is coming, obviously. That's the only reason for a price drop. Let's just use some induction here. If our theory is true, then the price cut on the PSP has to do with how many PSPs need to be cleared off the American shelves before the PSP redesign gets announced.

Narrow the time frame.
November and December are the months where sales are the greatest. Allowing October for announcements, it gives us a maximum range of 4 months for stock to be cleared. Seeing as how PSPs sell at around a 170K units on average, we have 680 or 700K units that retailers are confident that they can sell.

Now for the Prices Vs. Quantity asymptotic charts. The best way to do this is to look at the historic data on price points, similar or competitive products, and its own price decreases. Since the DS Lite is 70 Dollars cheaper than the PSP and sells 2 million more, you can assume that a 30 dollar decrease will follow the same ratio. That's about 850k units. But people don't purchase that way. People purchase using comparison. That's why the PSP was priced at 199 in the first place. Not only was it hi-tech, it was also priced the same as the iPod nano. Sony, if anything, is corporate and predictable. So keep that number weighted.

So 850k increase in PSP sales, 4 months of possible sell time.
212K per month projected increase.

Add them all up and you have 1.3 million PSP units in America that needs to be sold in the prime 4 months. There are 4(Target, Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City) national sellers of electronics in America and it's not farfetched that they would each order a projected amount of 300K units, ie a month and a half's worth backstock.

This assumption is based on my assumption of Sony's need to push out a redesigned PSP before November so that it can have a solidly push out out PSN titles to a PSP 2.0 with a built-in hard drive. Everyone and their puppy knows how important this Christmas is.

Conclusion
Sony's stock right now is at 49$. If you look at the yahoo charts, it's nearing a scheduled nadir cusp. it will probably start steadly rising to 55 dollars, just like how God of War 2 gave the stock a boost. Personally, i think the PSP redesign will bump the price even higher.

You could wait two months, earn 2% on your securities, sell those and dump it into Sony, and sell it at the end of January for the truly unbrave.

Sony's not a good long term buy but it's still a pretty strong brand. But maybe you should buy now. Who knows how fast people'll catch on.